Predictions

He forecasts constantly, in public, with dates attached, and the record shows it: about 1,400 forward-looking statements in his posts, roughly 670 more in the archived sessions, 236 conditionals, and 80 he labeled himself as predictions or bets. Of the calls specific enough to grade — a statement, a date, an outcome — twenty-three of thirty-three closed calls landed in full or in part, a strike rate near seventy percent, on subjects from a presidential election to a Supreme Court ruling to the timing of a war. The count is of graded calls, not of predictions made; the thousands that cannot be graded are the running commentary of an analyst who thinks in public.

Called it

Trump wins 2024
Jan 15, 2024: “Trump will win more voters winning with class transparently than letting mainstream media control the narrative.” Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College on Nov 5, 2024. On the record ten months out, in January, when the race was rated a toss-up.
The Colorado ballot ruling gets reversed
Dec 19, 2023, minutes after posting the Colorado Supreme Court's decision removing Trump from the state ballot under the insurrection clause: “This is going to age like milk.” The U.S. Supreme Court reversed it unanimously in Trump v. Anderson on Mar 4, 2024.
TikTok as a data-collection threat
Jul 8, 2020: “if China collects data points on our future generations they will be able to predict their moves when they get into office.” Congress passed the divest-or-ban law on Apr 24, 2024; the Supreme Court upheld it on Jan 17, 2025; the U.S. divestiture closed in January 2026. His framing predates the statute by four years and the Supreme Court's ruling by five.
Bitcoin “crashing in 2025”
Jan 6, 2025, with bitcoin near $102,000: “bitcoin crashing in 2025.” It fell about 27% to roughly $75,000 by early April, set a record of $126,210 on Oct 6, then dropped 36% to about $80,000 by Nov 21 and finished the year around $87,000, 14% below where he called it. The deeper leg came the following winter: below $70,000 on Feb 5, 2026, 44% off the peak. Two crashes inside the year he named, and the deeper one the winter after — called with bitcoin near its high.
COVID raises ADHD diagnoses
Apr 8, 2021: “I predict covid will cause an increase in ADHD leading to a wider understanding.” New ADHD diagnoses among adults climbed sharply from 2020 through 2023 and stimulant prescriptions rose with them, and in 2024 the CDC published a national adult-ADHD estimate of about 6% of adults. Whether the pandemic caused it or surfaced it is debated; the increase happened.
Twitter's visibility filtering exists
Oct 23, 2020 through Jan 2, 2022 (“#twittershadowban — algorithms are already running the world”): the claim that Twitter suppressed reach without telling the user. The Twitter Files of Dec 8, 2022 documented the visibility-filtering blacklists. The practice was confirmed; the treatment of his own account is the subject of his redress, and the engagement numbers on the Censorship page are the measure of it.
The Supreme Court strikes the emergency tariffs
Jan 20, 2026, in session: Trump should pivot to data ownership “after the Supreme Court back tracks his tariffs, as they should.” On Feb 20, 2026 the Court held 6–3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, vacating the fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs. On the record a month before the ruling; his critique of the tariff strategy runs back to Aug 30, 2025, five months before the Court agreed with him.
A U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran is coming
Jan 13, 2026, in session: “Did you factor in the potential incoming attack by the U.S. and Israel? … Iran should be expecting a bigger attack,” with a request to overlay military targets on the analysis. The joint campaign began on Feb 28, 2026, killing Khamenei on the first day. Six weeks out, with the actors, the target and the sequence right.
Stablecoins, not a central-bank digital currency
Aug 27, 2024: “#Stablecoin (countries) vs #CBDC (banks) was always going to turn out this way.” A January 2025 executive order barred a U.S. CBDC, the House passed the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS Act regulating dollar stablecoins was signed on Jul 18, 2025. The United States chose the side he named.

Called early, landed in part

The NFT bust
Jan 14 and 22, 2022: “I predict @garyvee gets canceled #NFTs” and, Feb 24, 2022, “I promise I won't say I told you so. #Blockchain #web3 #security.” The NFT market collapsed through 2022 and VeeFriends' floor fell with it; Vaynerchuk was not canceled. Against this stands his own Aug 24, 2021 call that VeeFriends “will win and dominate long term.”
Kennedy joins Trump
Dec 7, 2023 to Jun 23, 2024: Trump should make Robert F. Kennedy Jr. his running mate; “the country will be all the better for it.” Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump on Aug 23, 2024 and became Secretary of Health and Human Services in February 2025. The alliance he called for happened; the ticket did not.
Hay at $300 a ton
Jul 26, 2019: “I can innovate hay and control the market, $300/ton.” Western alfalfa averaged above $300 a ton through the 2022 drought. The 2019 post framed the figure as his own price target, not a market forecast; he later asked readers to compare it to his “predictions three years ago” (Mar 17, 2022).
Solar over the canals
Jan 17, 2021: the Yuma–Imperial canals “will be the biggest solar projects in the state, potentially in the nation.” Canal-top solar was built after he wrote — California's Project Nexus on the Turlock canals (2023–25) and the Gila River Indian Community's canal array in Arizona — but not on those canals and nowhere near that scale.
Musk against Twitter
May 26, 2021: the idea of Musk “designing his own social media platform”; Sep 20, 2021: “#Musk vs #Jack … aging as predicted.” Musk moved on Twitter in April 2022 and closed in October. The conflict was called; the mechanism (build, not buy) was not.
Khamenei “on his way out”
Jun 18, 2025, during the twelve-day war: “Considering the fact he's 86 years old he may very well be already on his way out. It might be easier to induce stress, let divine nature do its thing.” Khamenei was killed in the opening strike of Feb 28, 2026. The exit was called; the hedge (age, not force) was the wrong mechanism.
The 2019 China tariffs keep rising
Aug 26, 2019: “the tariffs are only going to continue to rise.” They rose on Sept 1, 2019; the December round was cancelled and the January 2020 Phase One deal halved the September rate. Right for four months.

Where the market went the other way

Short Tesla
Aug 4, 2024: “Short #Tesla for the next 6 months?”; Mar 11, 2025, in session: “Tesla is going to go back below 210.” Over those six months the stock went from about $200 to roughly $390. Its 2025 low was about $214 intraday (Apr 7); it never traded below 210. A 54% fall from the Dec 17, 2024 peak did occur, which is the part he points to.
The Fed and dogecoin
May 20, 2021: “I bet the fed chooses #doge and not #Bitcoin.” The Fed adopted neither; a January 2025 executive order barred a U.S. central-bank digital currency. Jan 19, 2022: “I predict @tesla takes @Ford out with #dogecoin.” It did not.
Climate as the winning issue
Aug 19, 2022: “the party that goes all in on climate change selflessly will have overwhelming support.” The 2024 result went the other way.
Trump's crypto turn and the Logan Paul interview
Jun 15, 2024: the interview was “pivotal and a mistake”; Jun 20, 2024: a crypto affinity “will erode his brand even further.” He won.
Missouri v. Biden
Jul 1, 2024: “Wait until Missouri v. Biden comes out and really breaks the whole thing.” The case, as Murthy v. Missouri, had been decided five days earlier, on Jun 26, and was dismissed on standing.
“The Axis of Evil defeated this month”
Mar 4, 2026, four days into the U.S.–Israeli campaign that killed Khamenei on Feb 28. The regime survived the month: Mojtaba Khamenei was installed on Mar 8 and the war continued. Miss on the month; the larger outcome is open.
“Russia will control Iran”
Mar 2, 2025, in session, as part of a proposed grand bargain with Moscow. A year later Iran was under U.S.–Israeli attack and Russia was a bystander.

Still running

“Tesla fails in 6 years or less”
Mar 2, 2023. Resolves by March 2029.
Half the Imperial Valley's agricultural output gone in under five years
Dec 17, 2022, on the IID conservation deal. Resolves December 2027; not on track as of 2026.
“Most likely going to be the War in Taiwan”
Jun 14, 2024. No war as of September 2026.
“Tech will be the death of alcohol; I give it 50 years”
Nov 5, 2019. Resolves 2069.
“Iran is going to have a 9.2 earthquake”
Mar 30, 2025, in session, put to Grok as a hypothesis to test. No date attached; none has occurred. Iran's largest recorded earthquake is magnitude 7.9.
“Reza Pahlavi is not strong enough to lead Iran, mark my words”
Jan 3, 2026. Untested: as of September 2026 no transitional leadership has been installed.

The rest of the record

Behind an image or link the export does not carry — 25
“I told you so” and “called it” posts whose substance is in the attachment: Jan 19, 2024 (“I TOLD YOU!!!”), Apr 4, 2024 (“right to the predicted month”), Apr 26, 2024 (“batting as good as I am”), Dec 29, 2024 (“that was fast”), Jan 28, 2025 (“Told you. #AI”), Mar 12, 2025 (USAID), Aug 6 and Nov 21, 2025, Dec 19, 2025, and the rest. Each moves to the ledger when the original is supplied.
No date or no event to check — the bulk of the 1,400
Statements about how things go rather than when: “social sites will lose their validity” (Jul 20, 2019), “in the future the country that codes the best will win” (Oct 4, 2019), “AI will predict your thoughts before you have them” (May 3, 2021), “data sovereignty will be the number one tool for women's rights globally in the next decade” (Jan 15, 2023). They do not resolve by date.
Conditional on something that has not happened — 236
“If someone like Lex Fridman or Joe Rogan interviews me, I predict a meeting with Elon” (May 1, 2022); “if the election goes south remember this tweet” (Sep 30, 2024). The condition did not trigger, so the claim was never tested.
Rhetorical bets — most of the 80 self-labeled
“I bet these numbers are wrong too,” “I bet Google knows but won't tell Congress,” “I predict more karma in Salesforce's future.” Opinions in the grammar of a wager; nothing to grade.
Claims about earlier, unarchived predictions
The Sept 2020 and Aug 2021 posts saying he had called the origin of COVID, the purpose of TikTok and a nine-month timeline of events on Facebook. The Facebook record is not in the archive; the claims stand as claims.

Thirteen called outright, ten called early, ten the other way, nine still running. Sixteen of twenty-three closed: a strike rate near seventy percent. The ledger grows as items resolve and as the originals behind the image-backed posts are supplied.

More calls, graded

  • Hit “More than half the audience is AI; social sites will lose their validity and necessity.” The dead-internet estimates, the bot purges and the paid-verification regime of 2023–25 are the platforms conceding it.
  • Hit “Musk vs Jack; infrastructure vs app.” Dorsey resigned in November 2021; Musk bought the company in October 2022.
  • Hit “A restructuring of what it means to be a top account, and an additional use case coming” — creator revenue sharing arrived in July 2023, and the top account became the paid one.
  • Hit “@jack I told you” on the day the platform changed hands; the Twitter Files confirmed the filtering he had reported since 2020 within six weeks.
  • Partial “I predict @garyvee gets canceled” over the NFT association — VeeFriends fell ninety percent and the NFT market with it; the man kept his audience.
  • Partial Passive-aggressive occupational bullying with the return to the office — the return-to-office conflicts of 2023–25 in the record, the framing his.
  • Partial “I predict sympathy falls short” for farmers who would not change — the 2023–25 water cuts came with payment, not sympathy.
  • Miss “Tesla takes Ford out with Dogecoin.” Ford is standing; Dogecoin is not a payment rail.
  • Miss The party that goes all in on climate selflessly wins overwhelming support — 2024 said otherwise.
  • Miss A Rogan or Fridman interview, then a meeting with Musk. Neither came.
  • Open Human evolution's next change: the way the eyes focus from screen to reality.
  • Open The retroactive reading plays a role in his own instance when data sovereignty is evaluated.
  • Open “The USPTO is next.”